Mass federal layoffs under Trump’s administration, led by Elon Musk, have yet to significantly impact official U.S. job market data. While tens of thousands of federal employees and contractors have been dismissed, unemployment claims among former government workers remain low. Economists are watching key indicators, including weekly jobless claims, nonfarm payroll reports, and JOLTS data, for signs of job losses. However, federal workers file claims through a separate system, and layoffs of contractors may not be fully captured. The first meaningful impact on employment statistics is expected in reports released between March and April.
See "When will mass US government firings show up in data?", Dan Burns, Reuters, February 25, 2025