Catherwood LibraryILR School

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ recent 10-year forecast for the labor market had few surprises, with health care positions – which are difficult to automate or outsource - continuing a long period of growth. The U.S.’s quietly graying population is facilitating a job growth rate that’s 50% slower than between 1996 and 2006, and workers over 55 will double by the mid-2020s. Personal-care aides and home-health aids are projected to create 10% of the 11.5 million jobs expected to be added to the economy by 2026. Clean energy jobs in the solar and wind energy sectors are the only occupations that will double by 2026, while software developers, mathematicians and statisticians fill out the top 10 list. Jobs in manufacturing and retail will continue to fall, as work increasingly becomes automated and e-commerce continues to soar – resulting in slow growth for jobs earning between $30,000 and $50,000. Inequality will continue to grow, showing sharp polarization in income and geography as college-educated Americans in the largest cities continue to thrive while less educated workers in rural areas fall further behind. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has forecasted the growth of education and health care accurately in the past, but was unable to predict events such as the Great Recession, which curtailed overall job growth and obliterated construction, or the natural gas revolution, which initiated a mining boom.